Methodology

How we record
and score signals.

Accuracy numbers only mean something if you know exactly how they're produced. This page documents how a signal is recorded, how its outcome is measured, and the limits of what the published figures prove.

How a signal is recorded

  1. 1When a signal fires, we log the symbol, direction (long or short), timestamp, and the entry price at that moment.
  2. 2The signal is then evaluated at fixed forward horizons — 4h, 12h, 24h, and 72h — against the price at each horizon.
  3. 3Each horizon resolves independently, so one signal contributes several data points as time passes.

Price source

Entry and horizon prices are taken from a consistent public market reference (Binance spot for the tracked symbol). Using one source for both ends of every measurement keeps the comparison internally consistent and avoids cherry-picking the most favorable venue.

What counts as a win, loss, or neutral

Outcomes are scored directionally, not by magnitude:

  • Win — price moved in the signalled direction at that horizon (up for a long, down for a short).
  • Loss — price moved against the signalled direction.
  • Neutral — price was effectively flat within a small threshold, so the horizon is treated as inconclusive rather than forced into win or loss.

A "hit rate" is wins divided by resolved (non-neutral) outcomes. Symbols or windows with very few resolved signals are flagged as low-sample and should not be read as stable performance.

Distinct calls, not feed rows. A live confirmation call is re-emitted every few minutes for as long as it persists, so the raw feed contains many rows per decision — one call that stays live for eight hours can produce ~100 rows. All win rates and profit factors on this site are computed over distinct calls: consecutive same-symbol, same-direction confirmations are collapsed into one episode, and a gap of more than 12 hours starts a new call. This keeps the published sample small (we show the n everywhere it appears), but it prevents the rate from being weighted by how long a call happened to stay live or how often a client polled it. Feed-volume counts (signals streamed) are reported separately and are never used as a win-rate denominator.

Confidence tiers

Each confirmation carries a confidence of HIGH or MEDIUM, derived from how strongly the underlying context layers agree. Confidence is meant to size conviction, not to promise an outcome — a HIGH-confidence call can still lose, and we track both tiers honestly.

Fees and slippage are not modelled

Published accuracy is measured on raw mid/last price moves. It does not deduct trading fees, funding payments, spread, or slippage. Your realised results will be lower than the raw directional hit rate once execution costs are included — treat the figures as a measure of directional context quality, not net trading profit.

Signal vs execution caveat

A recorded signal is a market-context observation at a point in time. It is not an order, a fill, or a round-trip trade. Real execution adds entry timing, position sizing, stop placement, exits, and latency — all of which are yours to control. The numbers describe the signal, not a strategy's bottom line.

Forward holdout (out-of-sample)

Signals generated on or after 2026-06-30 are tracked as the forward holdout relative to the scorer version frozen on that date. The API suppresses the overall rate until at least 40 outcomes span at least 7 calendar days; HIGH also requires 30 observations. This is stronger evidence than the in-sample window, but it can still reflect a narrow regime and does not model execution.

See the live record

Review the tracked performance, read the docs, or learn more about what we're building.

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Not financial advice. Historical accuracy does not guarantee future results. Crypto trading involves risk.